- The B&NES population in mid-2018 is estimated to be 192,106.
- The GP registered population was 211,454 in February 2019.
- It is projected that the student age population will remain significant in B&NES.
- The local population is projected to continue to become older with further implications, for example, increasing the strain on the NHS and adult social care.
GP Registered Population
There were 211,454 1 registed patients on the lists of GP surgeries in Bath and North East Somerset in February 2019. This is greater than the residential population as a result of the fact that residents do not have to register with GPs in their local authority area.
The Office for National statistics produce regular population projections designed to model the future growth of the population for each local authority. These projections are based on historical patterns of births, deaths and migration. As a result, they do not attempt to predict the impact of future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors that may influence demographic behaviour. The main omission is the impact of new planned housing development.
The national picture
It is projected that, by 2041, the number of people aged 75 or over in England will have risen from 4.47 million (in 2016) to 8.25 million, forming around 13% of the total national population in 2041. Almost 15 million people are projected to be aged 65 or over; by comparison, there is projected to be 13.67 million children and young people aged 0-19. 2
The local picture
There are projected to be a large increase in the number of older people in B&NES, for example, between 2016 and 2029 the number of people aged 75 and over in the local population is projected to increase by 36% (from 16,600 to 22,600 respectively). The number of 90 years and over in the local population is projected to increase from 2,000 to 2,500 during the same period.3 These increases will mean that services for older people are likely to experience further increases in demand.
Table 1: Demonstrates the projected overall changes for key older population groups in B&NES between 2016 and 2029.
There are many anticipated impacts as a result of an ageing population including requirments for people to work longer, additional strain on healthcare (particularly from long-term conditions) and difficulty enabling more people to live independently.
These are laid out in the Select Committee report
- 1. Bath and North East Somerset CCG Registered Population:
NHS Digital (2019) https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/patients-registered-at-a-gp-practice/february-2019 (date accessed: 19/02/19)
- 2. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based
- 3. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2016based