Part of: Population

Related To: Ageing Population, Students,  

Key Facts:

  • Taking expected housing growth into account, the overall population is expected to increase to nearly 200,00 by 2024, an increase of 11% from 2014.
  • it is expected that the student age population will remain significant and the population is expected to continue to become older.

Population Projections

The Office for National statistics produce regular projections designed to model the future growth of the population for each local authority. These projections are based on historical patterns of births, deaths and migration. As a result, they do not take into account any currently unknown future changes.

In 2015, local estimates were commissioned1 in order to try to account for housing growth as projected through the adopted Core Strategy for Bath and North East Somerset.  The key findings of this analysis are provided in the interactive dashboard below, alternatively you can download the raw data. This analysis does not wholly account for changes in static population groups, particularly care home populations and student accommodation, as a consequence figures for the 18-24 age range should be treated with particular caution. 

The differences between the two models are detailed in fig 1. 

Fig 1 - Differences between ONS population projections and locally commissioned dwelling led population projections. 

In summary, the differences between the two models can be explained by the fact that ONS models use historic changes to project forward and because housing growth rates are projected to be higher than historically. 

  • 1. Hampshire County Council (2015) West of England Dwelling Led Population Projections,