- The B&NES population in mid 2016 was 187,751.
- Taking expected housing growth into account, the overall population is expected to increase to nearly 200,00 by 2024, an increase of 11% from 2014.
- The GP registered population was 203,623 in 2017.
- it is expected that the student age population will remain significant and the population is expected to continue to become older.
- An ageing population increases the strain on the NHS, as the cost of providing care for older people is substantially higher.
GP Registered Population
There were 203,623 1 registed patients on the lists of GP surgeries in Bath and North East Somerset in June 2017. This is greater than the residential population as a result of the fact that residents do not have to register with GPs in their local authority area.
The Office for National statistics produce regular projections designed to model the future growth of the population for each local authority. These projections are based on historical patterns of births, deaths and migration. As a result, they do not take into account any currently unknown future changes.
In 2015, local estimates were commissioned2 in order to try to account for housing growth as projected through the adopted Core Strategy for Bath and North East Somerset. The key findings of this analysis are provided in the interactive dashboard below, alternatively you can download the raw data. This analysis does not wholly account for changes in static population groups, particularly care home populations and student accommodation, as a consequence figures for the 18-24 age range should be treated with particular caution.
A note on data quality: the ONS Population Projections are based on Census projections reworked in 2012. Therefore, they are the most accurate available. However, these population projections are known to over-estimate the size of the local population.
The national picture
It is estimated that, by 2037, the number of people aged 75 or over in England will have risen from 4.2 million to over 8 million, forming around 13% of the total national population. Almost 15 million people will be aged 65 or over; by comparison, there will be nearly 14 million children aged 0-19. 3
The local picture
There are projected to be large increases in the number of older people in B&NES. For example, by 2021 the number of over 75's in the population is projected to increase by 20% 4 (approximately 4,400 people) and the number of over 90's are projected to increase by 44%. These increases will mean that services for older people are likely to experience increases in demand.
Table 1: Demonstrates the overall changes for key older population groups between 2011 and 2021 5.
There is a sizable amongst older age-groups but this gap is expected to narrow slightly over time.
Fig 1 - Population Projections to 2022 - Male/Female 75+ age-range
There are many anticipated impacts as a result of an ageing population including requirments for people to work longer, additional strain on healthcare (particularly from long-term conditions) and difficulty enabling more people to live independently.
These are laid out in the Select Committee report
- 1. Bath and North East Somerset CCG Registered Population:
NHS Digital (2017) https://digital.nhs.uk/media/30705/Patients-Registered-at-a-GP-Practice-April-2017-Single-year-of-age-Commissioning-Regions-Regions-CCGs-/Any/gp-reg-pat-prac-sing-age-regions (date accessed: 20/11/17)
- 2. Hampshire County Council (2015) West of England Dwelling Led Population Projections,
- 3. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/snpp/sub-national-population-projections/2012-based-projections/rft-population-las.xls
- 4. Bath and North East Somerset Council (2014) Report of the Director of Public Health 2013-14 Coming home: public health’s return to local government, http://www.bathnes.gov.uk/sites/default/files/siteimages/Social-Care-and-Health/Public-Health/banes_dph_report_2014_lores.pdf (downloaded 13.01.2015)
- 5. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/snpp/sub-national-population-projections/2012-based-projections/rft-population-las.xls