Public Inquiry May 2005

Document No: BNES/3/1

Summary Proof Of Evidence Of John Adams On Behalf OfBath And North East Somerset Council

Introduction

1.1 I am a Partner of Drivers Jonas, a Member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and have a BSc (Hons) in Land Management from the University of Reading.

1.2 I joined Drivers Jonas in 1985 and have specialised in providing planning consultancy advice to landowners, investors, corporate occupiers and local authorities in respect of major commercial and residential development.

1.3 In particular I am involved with major city centre and retail and leisure based development throughout the UK.

1.4 My evidence to the Inquiry is concerned with the quantitative need, in retail planning terms, for the development that will be facilitated by the Order.

1.5 In my capacity as adviser first to the Prudential and then to CGNU one of my responsibilities has been assessing and monitoring the retail capacity for new retail development in Bath City Centre. Drivers Jonas undertook its own retail assessment as part of the application for planning permission in 1997. This was updated at various points during the consideration of the application.

1.6 In 2000 Bath and North East Somerset Council (The Council) commissioned Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP) to undertake a retail assessment on behalf of the Local Planning Authority. The City and Town Centres Study informed the Council's decision to grant planning permission. Because the NLP 2000 work was based on a household and street survey and was more up to date than the original Drivers Jonas work, we adopted its main findings and key assumptions.

1.7 I have been asked to give evidence on retail capacity to this Inquiry because I have personally been involved in advising on this issue for over 10 years and have been responsible for assessing the turnover and trading characteristics of the Scheme as it has evolved through the local plan and planning application processes.

Assessment of Retail Capacity

1.8 The need for additional comparison retail floorspace in the City Centre, and the role of Southgate in meeting that need, has been recognised since 1989 when the Council commissioned the "Bath Shopping Needs Study" which was undertaken by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. The study concluded that there could be an additional 6,317 sq m (68,000 sq. ft) net floor space provided by 1996 and 14,771 sq m (159,000 sq. ft) by 2001. This recommendation was incorporated into Policy R2 of the Adopted Local Plan. It also underpinned policy R3 of the Local Plan, which allocated Southgate for comprehensive redevelopment, primarily for shopping.

1.9 The retail requirement first identified in 1989 remains unmet. Since then there has been sustained national growth in retail expenditure particularly in comparison goods but very limited redevelopment in Bath City Centre. Outside the City Centre development has also been limited, in accordance with Adopted Local Plan policies, to food shopping facilities and retail warehousing primarily selling household goods.

1.10 The Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners Report, dated July 2000 (CD 10.4), provided an up to date assessment of retail capacity against which the planning application for the redevelopment of the Southgate area would be formally assessed as it was reported to Committee between 2000 and 2003, and finally granted planning permission in 2003.

1 .11 Total comparison goods spending was forecast to increase from £791m in 2000 to £1,286m in 2011. These figures relate to real growth and exclude inflation. They are expressed in 1996 prices.

1 .12 The level of expenditure available to comparison shops in the study area is expected to increase by £495m between 2000 and 201 1. The level of available comparison expenditure growth available to shops in B&NES at 2006 and 2011 is shown below

Table A: Comparison Expenditure Growth Available to Shops in B&NES

Centre	Additional Comparison Expenditure
	2000 to 2006	2000 to 2011
Bath	£112.50m	£232.20m
Keynsham	£4.92m	£10.15m
Midsomer Norton/Radstock	£8.70m	£17.95m
Total	£126.12m	£260.30m

Source: Bath & NE Somerset City & Town Centre Study, Final Report July 2000

Source: Tables 11 to 14 Appendix C

1 .13 The table assumes the market share of the City Centre remains constant.

1 .14 The total level of actual available comparison goods expenditure for shops in B&NES in 2006 and 2011 is summarised in the table below. The benchmark turnover of existing comparison shops in B&NES has been subtracted from the estimates of available expenditure, which provides surplus expenditure estimates.

Table B: Surplus Comparison Expenditure in B&NES

	Additional Comparison Expenditure £M
	2006	2011
Total available expenditure	£548.05	£682.23
Benchmark Turnover of Existing Shops	£420.82*	£442.28*
Surplus Expenditure
Bath	£112.81	£213.32
Keynsham	£5.94	£10.36
Norton Radstock	£8.49	£16.28

*Benchmark turnovers are allowed to grow at 1% per annum

Source: Bath & NE Somerset City & Town Centre Study, Final Report July 2000

1.15 Surplus expenditure in Bath is estimated to be £113m in 2006 increasing to £213m in 2011. The table below assumes that the benchmark turnover of existing shops will increase in real terms in the future. A growth rate of 1% per annum has been assumed from a position in 2003 of £4,945 per sq m.

1 .16 National trends indicate that comparison retailers will achieve some growth in trading efficiency.

Table C: Additional Comparison Floorspace Projections

Type/Location	Surplus Comparison Expenditure £M
	2006	2011
High Street Shops in Bath	£89.46	£170.65
High Street Shops in Keynsham	£4.71m	£8.29m
High Street Shops in Norton/Radstock	£6.73	£13.02m
Bulky Goods retail warehouses	£25.22m	£47.99m
Total	£126.12m	£239.95m

Type/Location	Turnover Density £ per sq m net
	2006	2011
High Street Shops in Bath	£5,095	£5,355
High Street Shops in Keynsham	£3,715	£3,905
High Street Shops in Norton/Radstock	£3,715	£3,905
Bulky Goods retail warehouses	£2,123	£2,231

Type/Location	Sales Floorspace Projection sq m net
	2006	2011
High Street Shops in Bath	17,711	31,867
High Street Shops in Keynsham	1,278	2,123
High Street Shops in Norton/Radstock	1,828	3,334
Bulky Goods retail warehouses	11,988	21,511

Source: Bath &NE Somerset City & Town Centre Study, Final Report July 2000

1.17 This shows capacity for around 17,711 sq m net of new floorspace in Bath City Centre in 2006, rising to 31,867 sq m net by 2011.

1.18 The Scheme will have a total retail floorspace of 37,567 sq m gross.

1.19 It will be fully open by 2010. Its first full year of trading will be 2010 - 2011, although earlier phases will have been trading since 2008. A test year of 2011 is therefore appropriate.

1.20 The Scheme will provide:

• A modern full range department store
• A full range flagship Boots store
• A modern city centre Foodstore
• Other Medium Sized Units suitable for modern high street occupiers.
• Unit shops of between 128 - 1564 sq m.
• A range of boutique style unit shops to accommodate new up-market fashion retailers adjacent to the department store.

1.21 The Scheme will provide an addition in comparison sales area of up to 14,000 sqm net.

1.22 The table below compares the estimated capacity in Bath City Centre in 2011 (from the NLP Study 2000) with the proposed Southgate area in terms of additional floorspace and turnover.

Table D: Capacity for Comparison Floorspace in Bath City Centre in 2011 Compared with Southgate

	£m	Net Sales Area (Sqm)
Capacity in Bath City Centre in 2011	£170.65	31,867
Southgate Net Additional Comparison Turnover and Sales Area	£92.4	14,000

1.23 This demonstrates that the additional floorspace to be developed at Southgate will be well within the estimates of capacity for additional comparison retail floorspace in Bath City Centre in 2011.

1.24 The implications of the Scheme not happening are considered at paragraph 12.27 of the NLP report:

"If the Southgate redevelopment cannot be secured in the medium term, then there is a danger that Bath's position within the regional shopping hierarchy will decline, particularly following the Broadmead development in Bristol. This decline may result in an increase in the level of expenditure outflow from BANES to competing centres, and a reduction in the size of Bath catchment area. It may be appropriate to consider other options if the Southgate redevelopment is delayed for a considerable period. Other city centre expansion opportunities and/or the redevelopment of non-bulky comparison retail facilities at Western Riverside should be explored. However, we believe that the council's efforts should focus on securing the redevelopment of the Southgate centre as soon as possible."

1.25 NLP updated the City and Town Cetnres Study in 2004. This Study (CD1 0.5) is consistent with the 2000 Study in identifying a pressing need in quantitative retail terms for additional retail floorspace in Bath City Centre. At paragraph 15.1 0, it states that:

"Bath City Centre provides a good range and choice of comparison shopping facilities. The city centre benefits from its historic environment and pedestrianised streets. However, the lack of available large modern shop units and the absence of a major department store are clear weaknesses when compared with competing centres and there is a general shortage of available shop units. The planned Southgate Centre redevelopment is expected to provide a range of modern units better suited to new occupiers."

1.26 I remain satisfied that the quantitative need identified in the 2000 study remains robust. The 2004 study identifies additional capacity over and above that identified in 2000.  I am broadly in agreement with the 2004 quantitative assessment, however, there are some assumptions and matters with which I am not in full agreement. These are not significant in terms of the quantitative justification for Southgate. I am content to rely upon the 2000 study.

1.27 What is agreed by all parties is that the quantitative need for the redevelopment of the Southgate area is pressing and that if it cannot be secured,. there is a real danger that Bath's position within the regional shopping hierarchy will continue to decline.

1.28 The Scheme has planning permission and can proceed once the site assembly process is complete.

Conclusions

1.29 1 conclude that, based on work carried out by Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners for the Council and Drivers Jonas on behalf of CGNU there is sufficient capacity to support the redevelopment of the Southgate area, even without making any allowance for Southgate and its related improvements to public transport and highways infrastructure to increase the City Centre's market share.

1.30 In practice, I am confident that the Scheme will significantly improve the shopping experience in Bath - in terms of range, quality, new retail offer, enhanced environment and accessibility and will increase the City's market share.

1.31 I am satisfied that there is ample capacity to support the Scheme area and the rest of the City Centre over the period of the phased opening of Southgate, and to support the full turnover potential of the Scheme when it is complete and has built up its turnover in 2010/2011.

1.32 The Scheme will be well placed to attract and absorb growth in expenditure beyond 2011 due to its large, flexible shop units and excellent accessibility by all modes of transport.